(175): On the Dynamics of Protests in Nigeria

By Muhsin Ibrahim

Decades after gaining independence in 1960, Nigeria remains a complex country in every sense. It is a nation of abundance and poverty, exceptional brilliance and widespread illiteracy, and much more. With a population of over 230 million, Nigerians are found worldwide. Nigeria has the good, the bad and the ugly.

Wole Soyinka, the first African Nobel laureate, recently celebrated his 90th birthday. Aliko Dangote, also from Nigeria, has been the wealthiest black man for over a decade. However, Nigeria is also known for having some of the most-wanted fraudsters on the FBI’s list. The country also overtook India as the country with the so-called capital poverty of the world, with 71 million people living in extreme poverty today.

Like many countries with petrodollar economies, Nigeria has had to contend with a plethora of socio-political crises, including long years of corruption, social neglect, prebendal politics, political exclusion and marginalisation; ethno-religious and tribal confrontations; and the state’s failure to achieve genuine national integration, among other factors.

Nigeria’s unique history, home to people of diverse ethnicities, cultures, and religions, has significantly shaped its present-day socio-political climate. Political leaders have come and gone. Problems with economic development, job creation and maintenance, the dignity of labour, the lack of electricity and other basic social amenities, and the spiralling security situation, especially in the South East and the North, have featured prominently.

Nigeria is experiencing multiple crises, with signs of growing popular discontent and frustration. A new generation is demanding change or has lost hope in the country. Many attribute the current dire situation to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who took office in 2023 and implemented harsh economic policies, leading to a significant increase in the prices of goods and services. As a result, the youth are planning a nationwide protest on August 1, 2024, but there is a palpable fear that this may not end well for both the government and the aggrieved youth.

Rewind briefly to the years of General Ibrahim Babangida (1985 to 1993). That regime implemented harsh economic policies that precipitated the collapse of the country’s economy at the time. That monetary policy, also known as SAP, was implicitly the cause of the regime’s downfall. The proscription of the National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) in 1987, followed by the annulment of the 1993 presidential election (‘June 12’), together with continued mismanagement, led to massive protests and civil disobedience that forced the government to vacate office.

In the context of social media, the cost of a nationwide protest can be prohibitive. The role of social media in mobilising public movements and protests in contemporary political discourse worldwide is no longer in doubt. Social media tools such as Facebook, Twitter/X, WhatsApp, and, more recently, TikTok have become instrumental in organising and mobilising movements to influence sociopolitical and development outcomes in various regions worldwide. 

For example, social media played a significant role in the Arab Spring, Black Lives Matter, and various pro-Palestine protests. In Nigeria, the #EndSARS protest began online and later transitioned to offline demonstrations, sparking widespread protests, particularly in southern Nigeria. Muhammadu Buhari’s government failed to control the situation and eventually banned Twitter while deploying troops, particularly in Lagos. Unfortunately, several protesters and some security personnel were killed and injured during the unrest.

There is a reason for social media’s resounding success there. Social media has been vital to collective action due to the widespread availability of mobile phones and low-cost data, which provide users with greater access to information. It makes it easier to organise protest movements, visualise digital communication between subnetworks, and provide a channel for contacting, praising, abusing, insulting, or even threatening officials.

For governments, the concern about enforced changes is that protests invariably challenge their authority and the political basis for their election or appointment. Therefore, the success of either the government or a population segment must be consistent with the ways in which protests can alter socio-political landscapes. 

Many people who are not currently in office advocate for political, economic, and social change and support protests in Nigeria. In contrast, the government frequently warns Nigerians that demonstrations can be dangerous, posing risks to property, life, and the economy. Unfortunately, this is a common occurrence.

When agitation to challenge state authority is brewing, influential figures, such as religious scholars and social media influencers, must work with the government to contain dissent. In Nigeria, as is often the case elsewhere, protests almost always result in an intense government crackdown. Governments view large protests as signs of public discontent or political opposition to their administration, with the potential to destabilise the regime. President Buhari labelled the EndSARS as treasonable.

In normal circumstances, peaceful, nonviolent protests that are safe and do not question the government’s legitimacy are usually ignored. Sometimes, governments organise counter-protests to oppose the original rallies. However, in today’s volatile situation, this would only exacerbate the problem. To be cautious, the Nigerian government needs to take action to de-escalate the current situation. If the protest occurs, nobody will win.

Muhsin Ibrahim teaches Hausa Studies at the University of Cologne. He can be contacted via muhsin2008@gmail.com.