(44): March 28th Elections: Fears, Pessimism and Prayers

Muhammad Muhsin Ibrahim

@muhsin234

Without digging deeper into the history lane in Nigerian politics, many people know that last-minute relinquishment, nay betrayal, by swayers in a political journey often results in the success or failure of a particular candidate. For instance, the Kano people saw that in 1999, when a comparatively more popular Engr. Magaji Abdullahi lost the governorship election to Engr. Rabiu Kwankwaso. There was a similar scenario in 2011 during the presidential election. General Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) entered into an ill-advised alliance with the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) at the eleventh hour. It didn’t work as feared. ACN and its southwestern supporters dumped CPC and the party’s candidate, Nuhu Ribadu, too, for President Goodluck Jonathan (and his party, the PDP).

Yesterday, a well-informed Yoruba friend of mine posted on Facebook that an experienced friend of his feared that opposition might yet again give in to PDP in the March 28 presidential election. Needless to mention, by “opposition”, he means their people, the southwestern political bloc. Some among the respondents expressed more trepidation; others rejected the caution outright as baseless, for, according to them, the opposition of today is far more formed, firmed and formidable. Thus, it couldn’t and wouldn’t be sold out. I sincerely think otherwise, for, after all, Mr Bola Tinubu and co. are not as honest as some Nigerians seem to think.

Many people have a cotton-candy view of the opposition party, the All Progressives Congress (APC). They ought to wake up to the reality. Looking at the party as an entity and its members as individuals reveals a simple fact that most of them are no better than their counterparts in the PDP. They are essentially the same, if not even worse. During its embryonic days, I argued that deserted PDP members in APC are like old wine in a new bottle, except for a few. Numerous crooks saw APC as a heaven, or as a remedial niche, where a common membership cleanses them of any sins, no matter how grave.

Tribalism aside, and fact be said, many Hausas trust Yorubas very little in politics, and fewer can vouch for their pledge of allegiance. Where, for instance, the late Chief MKO Abiola, a Yoruba candidate, defeated Alhaji Bashir Tofa woefully in his own state, Kano, of all places; General Buhari has never won any state in the south-west, in all his three consecutive contests, even with an accord in 2011. Therefore, if, God forbid, it happens again on March 28, Nigerians should not be bemused, not even surprised, for it’s simply history repeating itself. 

No denying that the north suffers more under President Jonathan, but nobody is immune. The dreadful depreciation of the Naira, for example, and the hiking inflation in the country affect everyone. Likewise, insecurity does not kill only the northerners; many southerners are also plunged into armed robbery, kidnapping, and cultism as armed robbers, kidnappers and cultists are increasingly having field days. Systemic failure, falling standards of education, corruption, etc., are gnawing at the fabric of the country as a whole. Therefore, the continuation of Jonathan is not peculiarly a northern problem. It’s all ours.

I am not being pessimistic; I am rather a realist now and always. The earlier those southwestern oligarchs rethink what they are musing, the better. They are not doing any good for their people, not for themselves. For now, it may seem that Jonathan’s corruption-ridden government may give them a plump reward, but that cannot sustain them forever. Only a better Nigeria can, and the simple way towards finding that is by kicking this government out and voting in a better (note: not the best, for he too is not) person, a little more committed party, the APC.

I pray that, should they refuse to heed the aforementioned, their people revolt against them. They are not God-sent nor must-obey; they are humans. It is high time Nigerian youth stood up for their right, for themselves and their future. We are the victims of the Immigration Recruitment tragedy, of the 2011 post-election violence, of the Boko Haram insurgency and so on. What more motivation are we waiting for to be ourselves, to use our God-given conscience, to practice the kind of politics of non-violence we see in the developed world? It’s now or never!